Climate change videos for the skeptic

>> Monday, August 30, 2010

Thanks to Oliver, who posted a comment linking to this series of videos by Peter Hadfield on the science of climate change. He nicely provides information without hysteria or obvious one-sidedness. Check out the first in the series below and let me know what you think.



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Kurzweil on the Ethics of Human Enhancement

>> Sunday, August 29, 2010

I'm often bemused at the resistance some seem to have with the promise of human enhancement via technology. We are already enhancing our abilities, overcoming our frailties and extending our healthspans. What's a pair of glasses but a technological means of enhancing ourselves? So what are people so bent out of shape about?

Part of the resistance to the idea comes from religion, to be sure. Religious leaders are afraid that enhanced human beings won't need them so much anymore and that their coffers will run dry. They're right.

Anyway, in my travels around the datawebs I came across this thoughtful treatment of the issue at Religion & Ethics Newsweekly. Check it out here.

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Will the first earth-like planet be found soon?

>> Saturday, August 28, 2010

Stars other than Sol are very far away, too far with our current technology to have any realistic chance of visiting them; on the other hand there's no reason to delay identifying, studying and plotting a course. This article confirms the discovery of a 7-planet system:

Astronomers have discovered a new solar system that appears to have almost as many planets as our own. They found up to seven planets orbiting a star that is of a similar type to the Sun, including one that is likely to be rocky and less than 1.5 times the size of the Earth.

Reporting his team’s discovery in France today, astronomer Christophe Lovis said: “We have found what is most likely the system with the most planets yet discovered. This remarkable discovery also highlights the fact that we are now entering a new era in exoplanet research – the study of complex planetary systems and not just of individual planets.”

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Touchless is coming to a device near you

>> Thursday, August 26, 2010



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My take on Climate Change

>> Wednesday, August 25, 2010

I am a climate change agnostic. Why am I not a believer? I will explain.

Those who would want me to believe have skipped a crucial step: Educating me. Convincing me. Showing me. They seem to assume that I should simply take their word for it, no need to show their work. Sorry. That's not how I do things.

I am willing to be educated, shown, convinced. I have no predisposition toward disbelief. But whenever I ask a layman-believer why they believe in man-made climate change, they invariably scoff and say, "Everyone knows it's true!" That's not good enough for me, and in any case, that statement is demonstrably false. I'm someone, and I don't know it's true. Many scientists are someones too, and they don't know that it's true.

Another problem I have with the climate change movement is its hysterical tone. I don't respond well to panic. If I were in a crowded movie theater and someone yelled "Fire!", I would not be among those blindly climbing over seats and getting trampled. I would be the one looking for the best and safest way out.

A further problem I have with the climate change proponents is their cynical misuse to data in an effort to incite the world to action. When they attribute every disaster to climate change, then I am the one scoffing.

So folks, my simple request is, show me your work if you expect me to be converted, Okay? Okay.

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The incredible history of science (video)

>> Tuesday, August 24, 2010



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Looking for ET in all the wrong places

>> Monday, August 23, 2010

We've all heard of SETI, the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence. We're talking here about a search that utilizes the scientific method and that began, in a sense, with the discovery of radio. As far back as 1896 Nikola Tesla spoke about the possibility of using radio to make contact with intelligent life on other worlds.

This article by Jason Palmer, writing for BBC News, highlights the suggestion by an experienced astronomer that we may have been looking in the wrong places, for the wrong kind of intelligent life.

Writing in Acta Astronautica, he says that the odds favour detecting such alien AI rather than "biological" life.

Many involved in Seti have long argued that nature may have solved the problem of life using different designs or chemicals, suggesting extraterrestrials would not only not look like us, but that they would not at a biological level even work like us.

However, Seti searchers have mostly still worked under the assumption - as a starting point for a search of the entire cosmos - that ETs would be "alive" in the sense that we know.

That has led to a hunt for life that is bound to follow at least some rules of biochemistry, live for a finite period of time, procreate, and above all be subject to the processes of evolution.

But Dr Shostak makes the point that while evolution can take a large amount of time to develop beings capable of communicating beyond their own planet, technology would already be advancing fast enough to eclipse the species that wrought it.

"If you look at the timescales for the development of technology, at some point you invent radio and then you go on the air and then we have a chance of finding you," he told BBC News.

"But within a few hundred years of inventing radio - at least if we're any example - you invent thinking machines; we're probably going to do that in this century.

"So you've invented your successors and only for a few hundred years are you... a 'biological' intelligence."

From a probability point of view, if such thinking machines ever evolved, we would be more likely to spot signals from them than from the "biological" life that invented them.


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Blue Brain - The quest to build a brain in silicon (Video)

>> Sunday, August 22, 2010

I am fascinated by my brain. Not mine in particular, but the human brain. Human brains seem to be the most complex things we know of, and are thus devilishly difficult to understand, but it is possible that a complete copy of a human brain may be built in a silicon substrate in the next ten years. What follows is a brief description of the Blue Brain project, reported for the WSJ by Gautam Naik.




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A factory in a box

>> Saturday, August 21, 2010

The dream of futurists is to see everything from an apple (the red or green kind, not a Jobs creation, but that too) to a pencil built molecule by molecule in a nanotech factory the size of a breadbox. They envision one of these in every home. This is not that, but it exists today and has been in use by the military (why do they get everything first?).

From Global Guerrillas, August 16, 2010:

RESILIENT COMMUNITY: Forget Afghanistan, These are Needed in Detroit etc.

The US Military Special Operations Command is building eight "mobile factories" that fit into standard shipping containers. These factories are based on the successful experience the US Army has had with something similar called the MPH.

From Strategypage:

The MPH was developed when the army realized that the easiest way to get the many rarely requested, but vital, replacement parts to the troops, was to manufacture the parts in the combat zone. In short order, this led to the construction of a portable parts fabrication system, called MPH, that fit into a standard 8x8x20 foot shipping container. The original version used two containers, but smaller equipment and more powerful computers eventually made it possible to use one container.
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Guest Post - A Different Take on Futurism

A Slightly Different Take on Futurism from Douglas Hofstadter

Dr. Douglas Hofstadter, a noted American academic and author of the best-selling, Pulitzer-Prize winning book, "Godel, Escher, and Bach: An Eternal Golden Braid," is also deeply involved in tracking Artificial Intelligence developments. As a cognitive scientist and general polymath with a background in physics, Hofstadter has played an instrumental role in discussions about the singularity and futurism in general.

While Kurzweil and his contemporaries approach the singularity as a very specific point in time that is close at hand considering the remarkably speedy technological developments of the last few years, Hofstadter takes a more conservative view. Regardless of who is right or wrong, Hofstadter has certainly substantively added to the exciting discussion of futurism.

Hofstadter does take issue with Kurzweil's and others' claims of the persistence of Moore's Law, which, if taken more figuratively than Moore himself intended, essentially undergirds the argument of the impending singularity. While it is true that we have seen quicker and quicker accelerations in change and technological advancement over the past few decades, as compared to relatively slow change in the distant past, Hofstadter points out that S curves, which demonstrate exponential growth that eventually levels off, could be just as possible in describing the future course of technological change.

Another point of contention that Hofstadter makes with several futurists is an ethical one. In an interview in the magazine American Scientist, Hofstadter noted, when asked about the singularity and advances in robotics:

"But the point is, there doesn't seem to be any discussion anywhere of "Is this good?" It's all "Let's go faster! Faster! Faster!" Well, where are you going? What are you trying to do? And I don't see any asking of these questions."

After having organized symposia at Stanford University to discuss these issues, Hofstadter was simply not satisfied with what he heard. As he put it in his interview, "the people [futurists at the symposia] didn't confront their own ideas."

While many consider Hofstadter to be a hard-line skeptic of the notion of a "singularity", nothing could be further from the truth. In fact, Hofstadter does assert that many of Kurzweil's ideas are "impressive" and solid. Whatever Hofstadter's opinions, the futurist community is deeply indebted to Hofstadter's questioning, if only because every idea--no matter how well-supported--must constantly re-evaluate itself in order to gain serious intellectual standing.

For further thoughts on the Singularity, view the Singularity Summit at Stanford on Youtube.

By-line: This guest post is contributed by Roger Elmore, who writes on the topics of hospitality management degree. He welcomes your comments at his email Id: rogerelmore24@gmail.com.

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The cloud flexes its muscle

>> Friday, August 20, 2010

Clouds are wispy, ephemeral things, until you get inside one. The digital cloud sounds wispy and soft too, but its awesome power has already been felt on Android phones. That amazingly accurate and speedy voice recognition isn't being processed by your phone's CPU, but by the powerhouses in the cloud.

Google steps it up again with this:

Technology Review - 8.20.10 by Tom Simonite

From Amazon's product recommendations to Pandora's ability to find us new songs we like, the smartest Web services around rely on machine learning--algorithms that enable software to learn how to respond with a degree of intelligence to new information or events.

Now Google has launched a service that could bring such smarts to many more apps. Google Prediction API provides a simple way for developers to create software that learns how to handle incoming data. For example, the Google-hosted algorithms could be trained to sort e-mails into categories for "complaints" and "praise" using a dataset that provides many examples of both kinds. Future e-mails could then be screened by software using that API, and handled accordingly.

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Where computer interfaces are heading - Mobile, Screenless, Invisible

>> Tuesday, August 17, 2010

Technology Review - 8.17.10

One futurist's vision of the coming interface singularity contrasts with the reality of today's prototypes.

Reto Meier, an "Android Developer Advocate for Google" recently laid out a fairly science-fiction account of where computer (or at least mobile) interfaces are headed.

In the spirit of the best futurism, all of his predictions - from Augmented Reality eye glasses to advanced batteries - have parallels in the real world. What follows is a walk-through of the future, expressed in terms of the not quite ready for prime time discoveries coming out of labs today.


You Can Never Have Enough Monitors

Working on the average laptop is like working on a desk that's as big as a sheet of paper. That's why all our "files" are half an inch high. The key to productivity and immersion is more, bigger screens - hence the proliferation of external monitors, secondary reading devices and even mobile phones with improbably large screens.


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Singularity - Are you ready, my brother?

>> Sunday, August 15, 2010

MercuryNews.com - 8.12.10 by Chris O'Brien

It can be easy to dismiss Singularity, an intellectual movement embraced by some of Silicon Valley's most celebrated thinkers, because of its more fantastic elements -- humans merging with machines, thousand-year life spans and predictions of a robot war that will wipe out humanity within a few decades.

But that misses the point at the heart of Singularity: The pace of change in technology and science is accelerating so rapidly that the world is completely unprepared to deal with the consequences. And the message from the people who champion Singularity: We need to prepare.

That will be at the heart of the two-day Singularity Summit in San Francisco that starts Saturday and will feature more than 500 people from various disciplines discussing how these changes will reshape our world.

To better understand Singularity, I talked to two people running the institutions that have become the public faces of this movement. Michael Vassar is president of the Singularity Institute in San Francisco, which conducts research and is organizing the summit; Salim Ismail is chief executive of Singularity University in Mountain View, which focuses on education and training about the topic.


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Transhumanism as our best hope against extinction

>> Thursday, August 12, 2010

theglobalspiral - by Mark Walker

Transhumanism is the thesis that we can and ought to use technology to alter and improve human biology. Some likely targets for the technological makeover of human nature include making ourselves smarter, happier, longer-lived and more virtuous. The operative assumption here of course is that intelligence, moods, longevity and virtues each have deep roots in our biology. By altering biology transhumanists propose to improve human nature to the point of creating a new genus: such as posthumans.

Posthumans probably won’t have much more capacity for evil than we have, or are likely to have shortly. So, at least in terms of how many persons can be killed, posthumans will not outstrip us in this capacity. This is not to say that there are no new worries with the creation of posthumans, but the greatest evil, the destruction of civilization, is something which we now, or will soon, have. In other words, the most significant aspect that we should focus on with contemplating the creation of posthumans is their upside. They are not likely to distinguish themselves in their capacity for evil, since we have already pretty much hit the wall on that, but for their capacity for good.

Notice that transhumanism encompasses a moral thesis. Transhumanism does not say that we will create posthumans, rather, it makes a moral claim: we ought to create posthumans. The hint of an argument based on the accrual of moral benefits is perhaps obvious from what has been said: to the extent that we value the development of intellectual, emotional and moral virtue, becoming posthuman is imperative. I won’t pursue this line of argument here directly. Rather, I want to explore the objection that transhumanism is an ill-advised experiment because it puts us at unnecessary risk. My reply will be that creating posthumans is our best bet for avoiding harm. In a nutshell, the argument is that even though creating posthumans may be a very dangerous social experiment, it is even more dangerous not to attempt it: technological advances mean that there is a high probability that a human-only future will end in extinction.

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Let's get rid of mosquitoes!

>> Wednesday, August 11, 2010

naturenews - 7.21.10 by Janet Fang


Every day, Jittawadee Murphy unlocks a hot, padlocked room at the Walter Reed Army Institute of Research in Silver Spring, Maryland, to a swarm of malaria-carrying mosquitoes (Anopheles stephensi). She gives millions of larvae a diet of ground-up fish food, and offers the gravid females blood to suck from the bellies of unconscious mice — they drain 24 of the rodents a month. Murphy has been studying mosquitoes for 20 years, working on ways to limit the spread of the parasites they carry. Still, she says, she would rather they were wiped off the Earth.

That sentiment is widely shared. Malaria infects some 247 million people worldwide each year, and kills nearly one million. Mosquitoes cause a huge further medical and financial burden by spreading yellow fever, dengue fever, Japanese encephalitis, Rift Valley fever, Chikungunya virus and West Nile virus. Then there's the pest factor: they form swarms thick enough to asphyxiate caribou in Alaska and now, as their numbers reach a seasonal peak, their proboscises are plunged into human flesh across the Northern Hemisphere.

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A call to keep the metaphysics out of technology hype

>> Tuesday, August 10, 2010

NYT - 8.9.10 by Jaron Lanier

Ji Lee

Berkeley, Calif.

THE news of the day often includes an item about some development in artificial intelligence: a machine that smiles, a program that can predict human tastes in mates or music, a robot that teaches foreign languages to children. This constant stream of stories suggests that machines are becoming smart and autonomous, a new form of life, and that we should think of them as fellow creatures instead of as tools. But such conclusions aren’t just changing how we think about computers — they are reshaping the basic assumptions of our lives in misguided and ultimately damaging ways.

I myself have worked on projects like machine vision algorithms that can detect human facial expressions in order to animate avatars or recognize individuals. Some would say these too are examples of A.I., but I would say it is research on a specific software problem that shouldn’t be confused with the deeper issues of intelligence or the nature of personhood. Equally important, my philosophical position has not prevented me from making progress in my work. (This is not an insignificant distinction: someone who refused to believe in, say, general relativity would not be able to make a GPS navigation system.)


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Bill Gates on the future of online education (Video)

>> Monday, August 09, 2010



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Bizarre Bot Traders Operating In Markets?

>> Sunday, August 08, 2010

Atlantic - 8.4.10 by Alexis Madrigal

Mysterious and possibly nefarious trading algorithms are operating every minute of every day in the nation's stock exchanges.

What they do doesn't show up in Google Finance, let alone in the pages of the Wall Street Journal. No one really knows how they operate or why. But over the past few weeks, Nanex, a data services firm has dragged some of the odder algorithm specimens into the light.

The trading bots visualized in the stock charts in this story aren't doing anything that could be construed to help the market. Unknown entities for unknown reasons are sending thousands of orders a second through the electronic stock exchanges with no intent to actually trade. Often, the buy or sell prices that they are offering are so far from the market price that there's no way they'd ever be part of a trade. The bots sketch out odd patterns with their orders, leaving patterns in the data that are largely invisible to market participants.


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We're not ready, according to Google CEO Eric Schmidt

>> Saturday, August 07, 2010

Futurism's quote of the week:

“I spend most of my time assuming the world is not ready for the technology revolution that will be happening to them soon.”

Eric Schmidt via TechCrunch

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